Where is the media "schizo patrol" from 2000? You remember them, the folks who were all too comfortable saying that Al Gore was a man uncomfortable in his skin, a man who showed up in three variants in three debates? Bush this year is Gore 2000. So where are all those psychobabblers?
(Crickets chirping.)
To recap:
- Bush Version 1 was The Pouter;
- Bush Version 2 was The Shouter; and
- Bush Version 3 was The Doubter.
Version 1 and 2 have been thoroughly discussed, so let me clarify the third label by reminding people to go back and look at how Kerry hammered him on assault weapons and on employment. Bush reflexively started incongruously talking about No Child Left Behind in response to the latter; heck, I'm surprised he didn't try to work in NCLB as somehow a solution to the assault weapons problem. A giant, unfunded federal mandate for testing, but not resourcing our children's schools - it's the panacea to all America's problems! He has serious doubts about almost all of his policies, and it shows. That's why he's only comfortable talking about himself and how great a leader he is, in the abstract. When he looks more carefully, even he doubts the claims he's been trotted out there to make. (Eye dart, semi-wink, phony smile.)
In fairness to the president, on style this was his best showing. And yet he still came across as very unsettled at key moments. In sum, his best performance was not any better on substance, just a bit more polished than the first two debates. And, overall, it was still worse than what I believe was, marginally, Kerry's weakest overall performance. (He seem tired -- or was that just me? -- and sometimes gave too many factoids or details, swamping the listener.)
Finally, don't tell me that Kerry's victories in Miami and St. Louis didn't matter. They did. Here are the results from the Washington Post and ABC News tracking polls for the past 12 days. The first were taken between October 1-3, right after Debate 1; the most recent were taken between October 11-13, just before last night's debate.
ABC News (likely voters)
October 1-3: BC-51, KE-46
October 10-12: BC-48, KE-48
Net shift: +5 Kerry-Edwards
ABC News (registered voters)
October 1-3: BC-50, KE-45
October 10-12: BC-47, KE-47
Net shift: +5 Kerry-Edwards
Washington Post (likely voters)
October 1-3: BC-51, KE-46
October 10-12: BC-48, KE-49
Net shift: +6 Kerry-Edwards
Washington Post (registered voters)
October 1-3: BC-49, KE-46
October 10-12: BC-46, KE-48
Net shift: +5 Kerry-Edwards
It's a ground war now. I don't think the Sinclair thing will have much effect, but maybe I'm being naïve. The Swift Boat ads did have an effect, but the Sinclair "documentary" is redundant to that. What we will learn in three weeks is simply this: which party, candidate and campaign did the best job during the past two years registering and mobilizing its base voters. This is a mobilization, not conversion-of-centrists election, pure and simple.
And I like our chances - a lot.